Sports betting odds are created by bookmakers to show what the outcome of a game or event is likely to be. They also dictate how much profit a player can make when betting on an event at that sportsbook. Using the +260 odds on the Packers, a $10 bet would payout $26 in profits, plus the return of your original $10 bet for a total of $36 back in your pocket. In most cases, the sportsbook you're betting with will do.
Sports betting lines on FanDuel Sportsbook are presented in what is called the 'American. Usually, we measure the chance in percentages, with the sum of all possible outcomes resulting in 100%. The best football bettors usually have outstanding odds to chance calculation and have no trouble.
Football betting lovers always strive to try and apply winning betting strategies in order to maximize their profit. All strategies vary by type, budget and betting markets but there is one thing that is common for all of them – the odds. Generally speaking, you will find odds not only for football betting markets but for all sports betting including NBA, NHL, Golf, UFC/MMA and even Formula 1.
Each sports betting event will have a certain outcome – in the end, there will be a winner and a second-placed team (may vary depending on the sport). However, since all sports are a game of skill, participants have a different chance of winnings. In a simple way, the betting odds represent the chance of a certain outcome to happen. In the next few paragraphs, together we will learn what betting odds mean and how they work, how to read and how to understand football odds.
Bet365 Football Betting Odds
Bet365 is one of the best betting sites not only in the UK but all around the world. The bookie gives you the opportunity to bet on more than hundreds of thousands sports events each year while providing generous odds. At Bet365 you will find hundreds of betting markets to choose from, including Bet Builder that allows you to form your personal bet at extremely high and competitive betting odds.
Since bet365 is a leader in the gaming industry, you can not only place bets on today's events but also long-term outright betting odds. Have a look at our dedicated odds comparison tool below, featuring outright bets from the biggest football competitions around the world. We update our odds daily and show you only the latest football betting odds. Tap on the event you are interested in and you will be redirected to a dedicated page on our website featuring Title Winner Odds, Top 4 Finish Odds, Promotion Odds, Goalscorer Odds and more.
How do Odds Work in Football and Sports Betting?
In order to understand football betting odds, first, we will have to explain what is a chance. Traditionally, a chance is the possibility of one outcome in a certain event. Usually, we measure the chance in percentages, with the sum of all possible outcomes resulting in 100%. The best football bettors usually have outstanding odds to chance calculation and have no trouble reading betting odds. It is important to remember that in sports betting, the odds don't add up to 100%. Let me explain that in detail below.
For example, if we flip a coin in the air, there are only two possible outcomes. The coin will land either on heads or on tails. There will be an equal 50% chance of both outcomes to happen. In football betting, the alternative for that type of an event is the Over 2.5 Goals market. Imagine a football game is played between evenly matched opponents. Again, the event has just two outcomes – either there will be three or more goals scored or the game will end with less than three scored goals.
In a perfect world, the probability of both outcomes (Over or Under 2.5 Goals) equals 50%. However, instead of exact odds at 1/1 (2.00), bookies will give you odds of around 9/10 (1.90) because in betting odds don't equal chance. The margin is used by the bookie to ensure that bettors will not have the opportunity of match betting and also to try and reduce eventually its losses from an unexpected outcome. If you understand how to make odds work in your favour and recalculate the real chance of a certain event to odds, you will find value in your bets and in theory will increase your long-term profit from betting.
Betting Odds Types
There are three different betting odds types accepted by bookies worldwide – Fractional Odds (also known as UK Odds, since they are mostly used in Great Britain), Decimal Odds (popular around Europe) and Moneyline Odds (used in the USA and Canada).
Decimal Odds Explained
Let's start with the most popular type of odds, the decimal, which we also prefer on our website because of its simplicity. The Decimal odds are prefered by many because they are easy to understand and calculate possible winnings. You will find the decimal odds option as default in most bookmaker around the world, however the most reputable and well-known betting sites like Bet365 allow you to choose your prefered odds type via an option in your profile settings.
Imagine that the bookie offers us odds at 1.25 for our prefered outcome (let's use Liverpool to win against Brighton). That odds represent 80% chance of that particular outcome to happen, also known as implied probability. The math is not that difficult. All you have to do is divide the odds to 100% – (100% / 1.25 = 80%). If you think that the chance of Liverpool beating Brighton equals 80% or more than placing that bet will provide value at odds 1.25 or more. In order to calculate winnings, you simply have to multiply your stake to the odds. For example, if we place $10 bet at odds 1.25, we will win $12.50, or in other words, our net win will be $2.50.
Fractional Odds Explained
Fractional odds are primarily used by bettors in the United Kingdom and usually set as default betting odds settings in most UK-oriented bookies. If we use the same example as above (1.25 decimal odds), fractional odds will represent 1/4. It is important to remember that fractions quote the potential profit should our bet succeed, relative to the stake, as opposed to the decimal odds.
For example, if our £10 is bet at odds of 1/4 the potential profit is calculated £2.5 ((£10/4) x 1) and the total returned is £12.50 (£2.50 plus the £10 stake). For odds 11/2 the calculation is £55 ((£10/2) x 11) and the total returned is £65 (£55 plus the £10 stake).
Moneyline Odds Explained
Moneyline odds are primarily used in the USA and therefore prefered by North America – oriented bookies. You will rarely see Moneyline odds (also known as American odds) as default in your favourite European bookies. At first glance, money line odds look difficult and tough to read, but in reality, they are not that really different from decimal and fractional odds. The only distinction between them is that American odds are represented by a positive sign (+) and a negative sign (-).
The odds for underdogs are accompanied by the positive sign, while the negative sign is for the favourite. In a simple way, Moneyline odds tell how much you have to stake in order to win 100% of your stake. Let's use once again our initial example with Liverpool and Brighton. Since Liverpool is a favourite to win it will be represented by a negative sign. Decimal odds at 1.25, equaling to 1/4 in fractional odds, will be visible as -400 Moneyline odds. In order to win $100, we will have to stake $400. If you want to win $10, you will have to place a $40 bet. For each $1 won, you will have to stake $4. As I said, the math is very simple.
If you decide to bet on the underdog, you will have to reverse the calculation. Since the negative Moneyline odds represent how much to bet to win a 100% of our stake, the formula is a bit different (X+100)/X, with X representing the odds. In our example above, Brighton will have +550 Moneyline odds, which means for each $100 staked we will collect $550 if they actually do it. A $10 stake equals $55 profit, a $1 stake will win $5.5, and so on.
Conclusion
As you probably already realised, reading and understanding betting odds is not very complicated. The tricky part is to learn how to make the Implied Probability work in your favour. In order to be successful in football betting, you have to constantly find value bets with odds that are near to the expected possibility of each outcome.
This is not an easy task and requires a lot of hard work for research and years of experience. Our tipster aim to find value bets daily, which you can find at our page dedicated to Today's Best Football Betting Tips. Placing bets in reputable UK Betting Sites that offer high odds is also necessary in order to maximize your profit.
Understanding how betting works is of crucial importance for any future punter, because there is no point in trying to play against the betting provider if you don't understand the underlying principles of betting.
In addition, betting without any knowledge of how betting operators conduct their business will only increase the chances that you will lose your money. And while that can happen to all of us, it is important to try to minimize those losses since the point of betting is to beat the bookie and overcome the advantage that the ‘house' has over you.
So how can you overcome this advantage? Are there any techniques which you can use to beat the bookmaker? In order to answer these questions we first have to understand how betting works. In this article we will look at the basics of betting, how bookmakers compile the odds, balance their books and how the new trends in betting exchanges and eSports betting might influence your choice of wagers.
Betting Basics
In essence, when you are making a bet, you are depositing money with the bookmaker. If the bet is unsuccessful, the bookmaker keeps the deposited money. However, if the bet is successful, then the bookmaker has to pay out the client the deposited sum multiplied by the odds of the winning bet. This is pretty straightforward and easy to grasp.
The next and more complicated step in understanding betting is the adjustment of the odds and the balancing of the books. These enable the bookmaker to always have an advantage over the punter. Let's see how this is done.
The Bookmakers' Margin
The bookmakers' margin, or also known by a couple of other names such as vigorish (vig for short), house's edge or overround, is the technique with which the betting provider ensures that he always has an advantage over the player, regardless of the outcome of the match.
The simplest way to understand the bookmakers' margin is to look at a coin toss. In this game there are only two outcomes, each with a chance of happening of 50%. This means that if the bookmaker decided not to include the vigorish in the odds, he would give odds of 2.00 for tails and 2.00 for heads.
If there were 10 players playing the game, and 5 of them bet $1 on heads, and the other 5 bet $1 on tails, the bookmaker would not make any profit at all. If the coin flip results in heads, the bookmaker will have to pay out all of the $10 he received as a deposit, and exactly the same thing will happen if the coin toss results in tails. But let's say that the coin toss bets were not distributed equally, and say, 7 people bet on heads and 3 on tails. In this situation the bookmaker would basically be riding his luck.
If the coin toss results in tails the bookmaker will win $4 as he will only have to pay out $6 in winnings. However, if the coin toss results in heads, the bookmaker will have to pay out $14 and will therefore record a loss of $4. Based on this, we can easily see why bookmakers have to have a technique which would prevent their business from either constantly working with 0 profit or from being completely dependent on fortune.
How To Read Betting Odds
The bookmakers' margin ensures that the bookmaker will make profit regardless of the outcome of the match or event. That's why when there are only two outcomes in a game (and both of them are equally possible), such as in a coin flip, it is much more likely that you will see odds such as 1.85 or 1.90 instead of odds of 2.00 being given to the two outcomes.
If we use the same example, we can see that if there were 10 people betting $1 on the coin flip, 5 of which bet on tails, and the other 5 on heads, the bookmaker will always stand to make a profit. This is because the total deposits will again amount to $10, but this time the maximum amount which the bookmaker will have to pay out will be $9.5 (if the odds were 1.90) regardless of the outcome.
However, it must be said that this is an overly simplified example, and that there are many more factors involved when creating the odds. This is because most of the time there are more than only two possible outcomes. In addition, the outcomes don't have the same likelihood of happening. And finally, people don't distribute their bets equally on all outcomes.
Compiling the Odds
When compiling the odds, it is incredibly important to understand all of the above mentioned factors. That's why when bookmakers hire people to create the odds they always look for people who specialize in only one or two sports and have extensive knowledge of how statistics and odds work. Odds compilers must look at factors such as the form of the teams and players, their previous results leading up to the game, match history, injuries to players and even the weather conditions on the day of the match.
However, since these are all top notch professionals, they know how to compile odds containing the right vigorish every time, all the time. Let's look at an example of how odds compilers would create the odds for one specific esport match up.
When Cloud9 are playing TSM in let us say League of Legends, the relative probability of a Cloud9 win is 60% (1.67) and the probability of a TSM win is 40% (2.50). As we can see, when combined together, the percentages add up to the expected 100%. This is not an optimal scenario for the bookmaker.
This is where an odds compiler comes in. His job is to make sure that the combined chances for both teams to win, always go over the expected 100%. For example, a Cloud9 win will be priced by the odds compiler at 70% (1.43) and a TSM win will be priced at 50% (2.00).
As you can see, the odds are much lower after the odds compiler has been at work.
Real Odds
Cloud9 win $60 stake at 1.67 - to pay out $100 TSM win $40 stake at 2.50 - to pay out $100Compiler's Odds
Cloud9 win $60 stake at 1.43 - to pay out $85 TSM win $40 stake at 2.00 - to pay out $80Balancing the Books
In addition to creating the bookmakers' margin, it is the odds compiler's job to create a balanced book of a specific market. The odds shown for the esport match between Cloud9 and TSM represent a nice example of a balanced book of a market. A balanced book means that the odds compiler has taken into account the fact that Cloud9 are favourites for the match against TSM and has lowered the odds as he is expecting an influx of bets on Cloud9 to win.
However, if for some reason the odds compiler has not factored in an injury to a key player, or the injury happened just before the match started, the bookmaker can further balance the odds. For example, if one of Cloud9's key players wakes up with the flu on match day, the bookmaker can increase the odds for an Cloud9 win, thus compensating for the expected influx of bets on a TSM victory.
Betting Exchanges
The bookmakers' margin is great for the bookmakers business. However, it is not so good if you are a punter who is betting big money and is expecting his winnings to be as big as they possibly can. In his situation, the lower the bookmakers' margin the better.
This is where betting exchanges come into play. Betting exchanges are transactions made between gamblers, where the bookmaker is only there to make sure that the transaction occurs and only charges a commission ranging from 2% to 5%. In a betting exchange one punter 'backs' a player / a team to win, and the other gambler 'lays' the same player / team to lose. All bets must be matched, meaning that if there is no one to bet against you, the bet will be void.
In short, at betting exchanges players and punters make the rules and set the odds. This means that there is almost no overround and that as long as you find someone to bet against you, you have basically cut out the bookmaker out of the equation.
eSports Betting
Something similar to betting exchanges happens in eSports betting. eSports are probably the youngest type of sport that bookmakers have started to include in their offer, so it is only to be expected that there will be many variations in how the odds are compiled until the most ideal solution is found.
Some bookmakers still use the traditional method of giving odds to eSports matches and events just like they do to all the other sports. They try to make sure that the books are balanced and that they have incorporated all of the useful information such as form, stats and history in their odds.
How Does Sports Betting Work
However, some other bookmakers, especially those working exclusively in eSports betting, have let their customers do all of their work for them. They give their punters the chance to choose the winner of a match and then compare how many people have bet on each outcome.
If both outcomes are equally bet on, then the odds would reflect this, meaning that each team will have odds of around 1.90. However, if one outcome is more heavily backed than the other, then this outcome will have much lower odds.
In fact, because of the interconnected nature of the eSports community, insider betting news often travels quite fast and there are numerous bets being placed on only one outcome as a result. In this situation, it is even possible that, if you win, you will only get your original deposit and wouldn't make any profit.
Summary
To sum up, betting is big business and is programmed in a way which ensures that the bookmaker will always make a profit regardless of which the final outcome is and how many people have backed it. In addition, odds compilers and bookmakers always try to make sure that they have covered all the aspects of an event before they give you their odds for it. And even when they have compiled their odds, they can still modify them to protect themselves against losses.
How Do Sports Betting Odds Work
It is up to the punter to choose the best betting opportunity for him. This might mean taking advantage of an inside information that he has got; being really meticulous in his pre-match analysis; or focusing his wagers on some strategic eSports betting.
